November 26, 2018
You've heard by now that the US Global Change Research Program released its Fourth National Climate Assessment last Friday. Scientists are, at last, confident enough to say that climate change is the new reality. How very much I wish they had published this bold assertion many years ago, rather than always being hesitant (" . . . we're 73% sure this could happen . . ."). While I know the politics involved cannot be allowed to sway them, and that scientists are unaccustomed to speaking for the masses, their inability to convince the scientifically uneducated of the value in climate change hypotheses has hurt us all.
In any event, they have now spoken up loudly and clearly. According to NOAA, one of the 13 government agencies responsible for the Assessment, we can expect the following, should mitigating actions not be taken immediately:
- Human health and safety, quality of life, and economic growth will all suffer.
The 2014 Assessment cites Superstorm Sandy for causing cascading impacts on
interconnected systems in the New York area. Flooding of subway and highway
tunnels made it more difficult and costly to repair the electrical system, a problem
that had gone unanticipated.
As conditions deteriorate, my own take on this is that humankind will descend into an
abyss where each human being acts, motivated by fear, only for him- or herself. We call
this barbarianism.
- Natural, built, and social systems will collapse.
These systems allow human beings to live in an orderly, socially responsible fashion.
Again, the direction of cascading events will take us toward barbarianism.
- Recent coping efforts are not enough to avoid substantial damage to the systems listed above.
Climate change already affects American companies' international operations and
supply chains, thereby taking a toll on trade and the economy.
- Without substantial reduction in greenhouse gases and regional initiatives to prepare for
anticipated changes, property losses could be severe.
My own belief is that property losses for many will be severe and ongoing. In fact, they
already are. To quote the 2014 Assessment, "High tide flooding is now posing daily
risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in
the Southeast."
- Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfires and downpours are expected to challenge
the quality and quantity of American agriculture.
The resulting uncertainty, particularly with regard to adequate food resources, could
be mitigated by the Transition Towns movement. More about that later.
- Continued changes to Earth's climate will cause major disruptions in some ecosystems.
The need to "think globally, act locally" has never been more critical. If each of us were
to guard our own local ecosystem, that would mean most would be protected.
- Everyone's need for potable fresh water, and for water to grow food, as the quality of
available water supplies declines, is raising the cost of water for agriculture, energy
production, industry and recreation as the human population continues to grow.
As the need for clean water escalates in comparison with the availability of water,
fighting among nationalities and between nations could result. Averting disasters like
this is going to cost us dearly, so we'd better get used to it.
- Climate change will transform coastal regions [throughout the world].
People will be forced to move inland, and to live in closer proximity with one another.
This could well lead to the spread of diseases like malaria and influenza.
- Other reasons for a decline in human health will be increasing extreme weather, worsening
air quality, the spread of new diseases, and decreasing availability of food and water.
Ticks that carry Lyme Disease have been spreading for years. Mosquitoes that carry
viruses like West Nile and Zika have become more widespread as their ranges grow.
Pollinating plants are making allergy season increasingly unbearable. All of this is
due to warmer weather.
The Transition Towns movement, which originated in England, is the one truly pragmatic approach to climate change that I know of. The citizens of transition towns take it upon themselves to grow as much of their own food as possible, and to source as many of their other necessities as locally as possible. This eliminates reliance on middle men and well-intended promises that are impossible to keep. People have assigned tasks for which they have made plans, always with the help of their friends and neighbors.
Don't know how to get started? Go to transitionus.org.
With thanks to vox.com, noaa.gov, and nytimes.com.
You've heard by now that the US Global Change Research Program released its Fourth National Climate Assessment last Friday. Scientists are, at last, confident enough to say that climate change is the new reality. How very much I wish they had published this bold assertion many years ago, rather than always being hesitant (" . . . we're 73% sure this could happen . . ."). While I know the politics involved cannot be allowed to sway them, and that scientists are unaccustomed to speaking for the masses, their inability to convince the scientifically uneducated of the value in climate change hypotheses has hurt us all.
In any event, they have now spoken up loudly and clearly. According to NOAA, one of the 13 government agencies responsible for the Assessment, we can expect the following, should mitigating actions not be taken immediately:
- Human health and safety, quality of life, and economic growth will all suffer.
The 2014 Assessment cites Superstorm Sandy for causing cascading impacts on
interconnected systems in the New York area. Flooding of subway and highway
tunnels made it more difficult and costly to repair the electrical system, a problem
that had gone unanticipated.
As conditions deteriorate, my own take on this is that humankind will descend into an
abyss where each human being acts, motivated by fear, only for him- or herself. We call
this barbarianism.
- Natural, built, and social systems will collapse.
These systems allow human beings to live in an orderly, socially responsible fashion.
Again, the direction of cascading events will take us toward barbarianism.
- Recent coping efforts are not enough to avoid substantial damage to the systems listed above.
Climate change already affects American companies' international operations and
supply chains, thereby taking a toll on trade and the economy.
- Without substantial reduction in greenhouse gases and regional initiatives to prepare for
anticipated changes, property losses could be severe.
My own belief is that property losses for many will be severe and ongoing. In fact, they
already are. To quote the 2014 Assessment, "High tide flooding is now posing daily
risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in
the Southeast."
- Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfires and downpours are expected to challenge
the quality and quantity of American agriculture.
The resulting uncertainty, particularly with regard to adequate food resources, could
be mitigated by the Transition Towns movement. More about that later.
- Continued changes to Earth's climate will cause major disruptions in some ecosystems.
The need to "think globally, act locally" has never been more critical. If each of us were
to guard our own local ecosystem, that would mean most would be protected.
- Everyone's need for potable fresh water, and for water to grow food, as the quality of
available water supplies declines, is raising the cost of water for agriculture, energy
production, industry and recreation as the human population continues to grow.
As the need for clean water escalates in comparison with the availability of water,
fighting among nationalities and between nations could result. Averting disasters like
this is going to cost us dearly, so we'd better get used to it.
- Climate change will transform coastal regions [throughout the world].
People will be forced to move inland, and to live in closer proximity with one another.
This could well lead to the spread of diseases like malaria and influenza.
- Other reasons for a decline in human health will be increasing extreme weather, worsening
air quality, the spread of new diseases, and decreasing availability of food and water.
Ticks that carry Lyme Disease have been spreading for years. Mosquitoes that carry
viruses like West Nile and Zika have become more widespread as their ranges grow.
Pollinating plants are making allergy season increasingly unbearable. All of this is
due to warmer weather.
The Transition Towns movement, which originated in England, is the one truly pragmatic approach to climate change that I know of. The citizens of transition towns take it upon themselves to grow as much of their own food as possible, and to source as many of their other necessities as locally as possible. This eliminates reliance on middle men and well-intended promises that are impossible to keep. People have assigned tasks for which they have made plans, always with the help of their friends and neighbors.
Don't know how to get started? Go to transitionus.org.
With thanks to vox.com, noaa.gov, and nytimes.com.
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