Skip to main content

When the Other Shoe Drops

September 7, 2011 - Texas has been on fire since November of last year. Over 3 1/2 million acres have burned. The Texas Forest Service now gives daily updates regarding the status of various fires occurring within the state. Let's talk, first of all, about why this is happening.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report in 2007 which said, among other things, that the arid regions directly north and south of the U.S./Mexican border would become even drier in the future, as a result of climate change. Mother Nature must have read the report, because those chickens have already come home to roost. While the report predicts that these regions will become 10-20% drier by the end of the century, the weather forecast for west Texas tomorrow predicts humidity of anywhere from 5 to 20 percent, i.e., very, very low (desert humidity is 25%). How much lower than 5% can the humidity go? The answer is not much. It's an old story by now: climate disruption is happening much faster than anybody thought it would.

The content of the report to which I referred can be summed up this way: dry areas will become drier, wet areas will become wetter. Generally speaking, the United States east of the Mississippi will become wetter/snowier, something we have already witnessed. While the report also predicts that west of the Mississippi, the country will become drier, flooding this spring belied that forecast, with extreme flooding taking place along the Ohio, Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, much of it the result of snow melt, as well as spring rains. Perhaps an area relatively close to the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers will turn out to be transitional, i.e., some years wet, some years dry.

The Texas Forest Service (TFS) has got to be feeling like they're in hell, with no way out. The Houston Chronicle's account of the lastest round of wildfires begins by saying it "stretched the state's firefighting ranks to the limit," though later in the same article, Mark Stanford of the TFS is quoted as saying "We're getting incredible support from all over the country - federal and state agencies." (Our hats are off yet again to our nation's top-notch firefighters.) Over one thousand homes have been destroyed by this most recent fire outbreak, which is centered in Bastrop, east of Texas' capital Austin.

Here's what's happening in other locations around the state:

In Grimes County, there is a 3,000 acre fire, with unknown containment. Twenty homes have been destroyed.

In Williamson County, there is a 300 acre fire, with no containment. Thirtenn homes destroyed.

In Travis County, there is a 6,500 acre fire, 40 percent contained. Sixty-seven homes destroyed.

In Fayette County, there is a 2,000 acre fire, 50 percent continaed. Seven homes destroyed.

On September 5, TFS responded to 22 new fires of 7,544 combined acres. Ten of them were considered large fires. In the past seven days, TFS has responded to 181 fires comprising 118,413 acres. Daily fire information can be found at www.inciweb.org.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Time to be Scared

November 26, 2018 You've heard by now that the US Global Change Research Program released its Fourth National Climate Assessment last Friday. Scientists are, at last, confident enough to say that climate change is the new reality. How very much I wish they had published this bold assertion many years ago, rather than always being hesitant (" . . . we're 73% sure this could happen . . ."). While I know the politics involved cannot be allowed to sway them, and that scientists are unaccustomed to speaking for the masses, their inability to convince the scientifically uneducated of the value in climate change hypotheses has hurt us all. In any event, they have now spoken up loudly and clearly. According to NOAA, one of the 13 government agencies responsible for the Assessment, we can expect the following, should mitigating actions not be taken immediately: - Human health and safety, quality of life, and economic growth will all suffer.        The 2014 Assessment c...

A Rock and a Hard Place

October 8, 2012 - Such a pickle: we have the coal, but no longer want to burn it.  China wants the coal, but shouldn't burn it because of the resulting air pollution.  Coal mining companies in the U.S. are ready and waiting to ship their coal to China.  Citizens of the U.S. living on its west coast are adamant they want nothing to do with exporting coal.  That includes Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber.  Kitzhaber's April 25 letter to Interior Secretary Ken Salazar expresses his profound skepticism about shipping coal by way of Oregon's ports.  He has requested that a programatic Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) first be conducted for all five of the export projects currently being considered, as well as a comprehensive policy review.  Here is part of a press release announcing his letter: "I have concerns about proceeding in this direction [exporting coal to China via Oregon ports] in the absence of a full national discussion about the ramif...